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Catlin Arctic Survey Data Indicates Arctic Sea Ice Is Thinning Rapidly

LONDON – New data, released today by the Catlin Arctic Survey and WWF, provides further evidence that the Arctic Ocean sea ice is thinning, supporting the emerging thinking that the ocean will be largely ice-free during summer within a decade.

The Catlin Arctic Survey¹, completed earlier this year, provides the latest record of Arctic ice thickness. It was the only survey capturing surface measurements of the Arctic sea ice during winter and spring 2009.  The title sponsor of the survey was Catlin Group Limited  (‘CGL’: London Stock Exchange), the international speciality property/casualty insurer and reinsurer.

The data², collected by manual drilling and observations on a 450-kilometre route across the northern part of the Beaufort Sea³, suggests the survey area is comprised almost exclusively of first-year ice.  This is a significant finding because the region has traditionally contained older, thicker multi-year ice. The average thickness of the ice floes measured by the Catlin Arctic Survey ice team was 1.8 metres, a depth considered too thin to survive the summer’s ice melt.⁴

These findings have been analysed by the Polar Ocean Physics Group⁵ at the University of Cambridge, led by Professor Peter Wadhams, one of the world’s leading experts on sea ice cover in the North Pole region. 

“With a larger part of the region now first-year ice, it is clearly more vulnerable,” said Professor Wadhams.  “The area is now more likely to become open water each summer, bringing forward the potential date when the summer sea ice will be completely gone.”

Professor Wadhams continued: “The Catlin Arctic Survey data supports the new consensus view -- based on seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, changes in temperatures, winds and especially ice composition -- that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within about 20 years, and that much of the decrease will occur within 10 years.

“That means you’ll be able to treat the Arctic as if it were essentially an open sea in the summer and have transport across the Arctic Ocean,” Professor Wadhams said.

According to the scientists who have studied the data, the techniques used by the explorers to take measurements on the surface of the ice have the potential to help ice modellers to refine predictions about the future survival or decline of the ice.

Catlin Arctic Survey expedition leader Pen Hadow commented: “This is the kind of scientific work we always wanted to support by getting to places in the Arctic which are otherwise nearly impossible to reach for research purposes. It’s what modern exploration should be doing. Our on-the-ice techniques are helping scientists to understand better what is going on in this fragile ecosystem.”

At the unveiling of the results in London, Dr Martin Sommerkorn of the WWF International Arctic Programme, which partnered with the Catlin Arctic Survey, said: “The Arctic sea ice holds a central position in our Earth’s climate system. Take it out of the equation and we are left with a dramatically warmer world.

“Such a loss of Arctic sea ice cover has recently been assessed⁶ to set in motion powerful climate feedbacks which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself – self perpetuating cycles, amplifying and accelerating the consequences of global warming. This could lead to flooding affecting one-quarter of the world’s population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emissions from massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes," Dr. Sommerkorn said.

“Today’s findings provide yet another urgent call for action to world leaders ahead of the UN climate summit in Copenhagen this December to rapidly and effectively curb global greenhouse gas emissions, with rich countries committing to reduce emissions by 40per cent  by 2020,” Dr. Sommerkorn said.

Stephen Catlin, chief executive of Catlin Group Limited, said: “The measurements of the Arctic sea ice taken by the Catlin Arctic Survey team have now been verified and interpreted by researchers at the University of Cambridge.  Their conclusions are important, and we hope that these findings will help stimulate debate at the UN climate summit in Copenhagen. “

A brief summary of the scientific findings reached by the University of Cambridge researchers appears below.

Catlin Arctic Survey

Summary Of Science Findings, Interpretation And Deductions

Below is a summary of the scientific findings of the Catlin Arctic Survey, their implications and wider comment about the state of the floating sea ice of the Arctic Ocean.

The analysis of the data collected by Catlin Arctic Survey was undertaken by Professor Peter Wadhams. Professor Wadhams is one of the world’s leading authorities on the current and future state of the sea ice cover in the North Pole region and leads a research programme at the Polar Ocean Physics Group, Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge.

Professor Wadhams has been the Catlin Arctic Survey’s lead scientific adviser from the beginning of the project and assisted in the selection of the route taken by the explorers in the northern Beaufort Sea.

The report by Professor Wadhams and Nick Toberg, another University of Cambridge researcher,  “Verification of Catlin Arctic Survey Surface Observation Techniques” (N. Toberg & P. Wadhams), will be developed into a paper for submission to the scientific journal "Cold Regions Science and Technology" (Elsevier).

The Catlin Arctic Survey ice team undertook a trek across the floating sea ice of the Arctic Ocean for 73 days, beginning on March 1st 2009. The team of explorers was led by Pen Hadow. Along with colleagues Martin Hartley and Ann Daniels, Hadow covered a distance of 435 kilometres heading in a northwards direction from  81.83ºN 129.97ºW,  finishing on May 7th at 85.45ºN 124.84ºW.

The intention of the survey was to capture data relating to the thickness of the floating sea ice. Hadow developed with scientists a pioneering method to conduct the survey. This included manual drilling at regular intervals along the route and observations of morphological features such as pressure ridges, rubble fields and open leads of water.

Six thousand separate pieces of data generated by the Catlin Arctic Survey have been analysed by the Polar Ocean Physics Group, University of Cambridge. They have found the data to be scientifically valid to produce values for the mean ice thickness and the distribution of different ice thicknesses.

The scientific value of the survey is enhanced because Catlin Arctic Survey was the only team from any country surveying Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness in 2009, making the results the most current. 

The measurements can be summarized as follows:

• The average (mean) thickness of the ice-floes or underformed ice along the route was found to be 1.8 metres;
• The average (mean) thickness of the total ice cover when the substantial volume of ice contained in compressed ridges and rougher rubble fields increased to 4.8 metres. (In the Beaufort Sea it has been calculated that 68% to 73% of the volume of the total ice mass during winter is composed of deformed multi-year ice infeatures such as pressure ridges;
• The 1.8-metre ice floe thickness is within the normal range of ice thickness associated with ice formed from open water the previous summer (‘first-year ice’).
• The Catlin Arctic Survey demonstrated that the entire traverse across the northern margins of the Beaufort Sea covered by the survey was characterized by first-year ice. This is the significant finding as the region has traditionally contained older, thicker multi-year ice. This is a key discovery because it means this area of ice is now more likely not to survive the summer melts in future and will become open water each year, bringing forward the likely date when the summer sea ice will be completely gone.

The Catlin Arctic Survey’s core scientific objective has been ‘to help scientists determine with a higher degree of certainty the likely timeframe for seasonal sea ice loss’.  The data supports the new consensus amongst sea ice researchers that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within about 20 years, with much of the decrease happening within 10 years..  The consensus is  based on the seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, as well as changes in Arctic temperatures, winds and especially ice composition,

The sea ice data and observations made by the Catlin Arctic Survey have now been processed by the University of Cambridge.  This information s now formatted for use by any research group focused on the modelling of current and future Arctic Ocean sea ice conditions.

SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (an international collaborative scientific effort focused on modelling sea ice conditions and part-funded by the US National Science Foundation and the US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration) has now received the processed data, which will be incorporating into its Autumn Review due to be published on 24 October 2009. 

SEARCH (Study of Environmental Arctic Change) involves approximately 40 leading sea ice research groups from around the world which specialise in modelling different aspects of sea ice and the processes affecting its state.

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